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 #32 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 24/08/2010 @ 22:32 |
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| In reply to post #31
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Got the first snowfall forecasts for the Banff area this weekend too.... 
OK so it's only on the high peaks and it'll rain after and then warm up again but it's still snow! |
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"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
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| #33 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 25/08/2010 @ 01:38 |
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Yey for pre-season snowages! I hiked upto Idaho Peak (Sandon) on Sunday and was hit by a mini snowfall, followed by instense hail & super cold temps...
It's comin' y'all... |
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Toqueanies Toqueanies - where handmade beanies and toques collide...
Toqueanies Toqueanies on 'The Book' |
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| #35 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 27/08/2010 @ 00:33 |
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| #36 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 30/08/2010 @ 18:14 |
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| #37 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 10/09/2010 @ 00:47 |
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Well folks, the latest from the weather boffins at the CPC and NOAA (here) suggest that the coming season could be truly spectacular in some parts. If it's not I'll be spectactularly disappointed!  The latest measurements show that the La Nina signal strengthened significantly during August, and could reach record-breaking levels pretty soon. The Multivariate ENSO Index ("MEI") which attempts to incorporate lots of measures of El Nino / La Nina strength (rather than just measuring the deviation in temperature in the equatorial pacific ocean - see here) already stands at -1.8. That's the lowest figure since 1975. The only time it was lower than that was 1955. If it goes below 2 that'll be the lowest on record. Now this doesn't necessarily mean it'll definitely be the most epic season on record, but it certainly improves our chances...  |
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| #38 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 10/09/2010 @ 09:00 |
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We've got our ESTA authorization through for travel to the US - so fingers crossed its a cracking year. Where will be best? West Coast Canada or Central Colorado/Utah?  |
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"You're so adrift in far off places and hilly strangers you adore, that you're riding blind through eden lying right outside your door"
Pistehors.com
Meteoblue Weather Forecasting
SHredding the Jar Teaser |
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| #39 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 10/09/2010 @ 12:22 |
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| In reply to post #38
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Well, according to my analysis, the places that have historically received the most snow in a year with a very strong La Nina signal pre-season are Mt Rainier Paradise, Mt Baker, Mount Hood Meadows and Mt Fidelity (Selkirks, Canada). But they're not exactly destination resorts. Of the resorts with on-mountain accommodation and reasonable lift systems my top tips would be:
Grand Targhee: Late Dec, Jan & Feb (a tiny reort in the middle of nowhere, but could get stupid amounts of snow).
Whistler: Dec, Jan & Mar (could be epic, and cooler temps will hopefully mean snow at the base).
Fernie: Late Dec & Jan (but data is sparse so there's more uncertainty).
Steamboat: Late Dec & Jan (scatter of points is higher though, so more uncertainty).
Jackson Hole: Jan & Feb (could be epic.. maybe the year to try JH?).
Those are the resorts that have historically had the biggest boost in strong La Nina years. We're talking about total snowfall in the 60-120 inches per month range for these resorts. That's 2-4 inches of fresh snow on average for every day in the month! Obviously some days you'll get none and some days you'll get major dumps to achieve that monthly total. Also, snowfall varies across the mountain and is often significantly deeper than what's measured at the weather station.
But plenty of others have historically received well above average in La Nina years. Central Colorado resorts like Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge and Copper all do better in Dec & Jan (about 25% more snow compared to an average year, and 50% more compared to a bad El Nino year like last year) but worse in Nov, and are unaffected in Feb, Mar, and Apr. The same is true of Aspen & Snowmass, but the effect is weaker. Utah resorts seem to get somewhat more snow in Dec in La Nina years, but are basically unaffected after that - they just get loads of snow regardless. 
Interior Canadian resorts like Big White and Silver Star do better in La Nina years, but the effect is spread evenly through the season so isn't as pronounced.
Statistically, there's a dip in snowfall in Feb in most North American resorts, so Jan & Mar are the better months to go, especially since La Nina tends to bring lower temperatures so March shouldn't be quite as warm as it is usually (so better snow retention and less slush & refrozen crust).
This would not be a good year to go to Mammoth, which is one of the few resorts on the west coast that gets less snow, on average, in a La Nina year. Lake Tahoe resorts display enormous variability and the effect of La Nina is swamped by the noise. They tend to do slightly worse in La Nina years but the scatter is also lower...
As always, the weather remains highly variable and might not do what it has in the past... You could be unlucky and pick a week when there's no fresh snow, or go to a resort with a poor track record which happens to have a great week while you're there. The only way to guarantee big dumps is to do a season, live near a resort, or eat lots of fibre... |
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| #40 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 10/09/2010 @ 16:32 |
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| In reply to post #39
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Thank you Baggzy now to Bob for sport
Bob, Pakistani cricketers should be given a wide berth |
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| #41 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 21/10/2010 @ 14:38 |
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UPDATED 7th October: Looking promising.
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
La Niña continued during September 2010 as reflected by the large expanse of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño SST index values were between –1.3oC and –1.8oC at the end of the month (Fig. 2). In addition, the subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained below-average, reflecting a shallower-than-average thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). This pattern was linked to a continuation of enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the ongoing La Niña.
Consistent with nearly all of the forecast models (Fig. 6), La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. Just over half of the models, as well as the dynamical and statistical averages, predict La Niña to become a strong episode (defined by a 3-month average Niño-3.4 index of –1.5oC or colder) by the November-January season before beginning to weaken. Even though the rate of anomalous cooling temporarily abated during September, this model outcome is favored due to the historical tendency for La Niña to strengthen as winter approaches.
Likely La Niña impacts during October-December 2010 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. The transition into the Northern Hemisphere fall means that La Niña will begin to exert an increasing influence on the weather and climate of the United States. Expected U.S. impacts include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and below-average precipitation across the southern tier of the country. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook). Conversely, La Niña is associated with suppressed hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific.
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"You're so adrift in far off places and hilly strangers you adore, that you're riding blind through eden lying right outside your door"
Pistehors.com
Meteoblue Weather Forecasting
SHredding the Jar Teaser |
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| #42 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 21/10/2010 @ 17:09 |
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Anecdotally, things are looking pretty good for an above average snowfall year throughout B.C. Not only is the Farmer's Almanac predicting a long, cold winter but the weather patterns from the west are setting up with lots of moisture earlier than usual.
We usually don't get the strong, wet Western flow until November but both the North and Central Coasts have seen record rainfalls on more than one occasion already. Bella Coola has been flooded out in fact.
Keep your fingers crossed but it could be a great one! |
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Gnarnia, Interior B.C. |
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| #43 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 21/10/2010 @ 17:56 |
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| In reply to post #42
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I notice there's some major dumpage heading for Whistler this weekend... First real snow of the season. |
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| #44 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 21/10/2010 @ 20:33 |
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| In reply to post #43
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There's a nice couple of bands of moisture lining up off in the Pacific..... It'll definatley hit Whistler, but where it heads after that is a bit of a lottery.
All depends on what happens to the High pressure over Seattle and where it moves to...... The snow could stay low over Fernie, catching the mid-BC resorts a little, but missing the highway resorts (KH, Revy, Banff) or could miss the south altogether and puke on Banff.... Which is what i'm hoping for!  |
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"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
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| #45 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 22/10/2010 @ 08:29 |
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Just some more fuel for the Banff argument this season. Also, there are some great deals in January - but holding out for the £299 for 11nights |
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"You're so adrift in far off places and hilly strangers you adore, that you're riding blind through eden lying right outside your door"
Pistehors.com
Meteoblue Weather Forecasting
SHredding the Jar Teaser |
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| #46 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 22/10/2010 @ 21:29 |
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| In reply to post #45
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I'm counting on lots of snow falling from the Selkirk Mountains... west!  |
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Gnarnia, Interior B.C. |
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| #47 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 08/12/2010 @ 10:16 |
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Well it's been an amazing start to the season in resorts which have historically been good in La Nina seasons. Whistler has had 113" (287cm) so far, Steamboat has had 119" (302cm), Jackson Hole has had 139" (353cm) mid mountain, and top of the list... Grand Targhee with 146" (370cm).
The latest monthly update from the CPC at NOAO isn't up yet (prob tomorrow), but the weekly data looks good. As often happens, the La Nina strength weakened a little in November. For example, the MEI (look here) rose from -1.9 to -1.6. And the equatorial upper ocean temperature rose slightly (see fig1). Nevertheless, the models are predicting that it will strengthen again over the next two months and last until at least summer (see fig2). A figure below about -0.5 represents La Nina conditions, so we should be looking at a strong La Nina through the winter months. This cold air & water in the equatorial pacific has historically affected precipitation from Dec-Feb as shown in fig 3. My bet is that since strong La Nina conditions will persist into summer, we'll see this pattern push into March as well. Those little green patches over Colorado, the Wyoming/Idaho border, and the Pacific Northwest are slap bang over Steamboat, Whistler, and Jackson/Targhee.  (Steamboat tends to get less snow than other Colorado resorts later in the season though, so Vail will probably do better from Feb.)
  
Europe (and even the UK) isn't doing too badly so far this season either, so it's looking good all over!
Fingers crossed for an epic season everywhere. |
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