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 #1 La Nina on it's way??? Posted 04/06/2010 @ 20:56 |
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The latest NOAA/CPC El Nino advisory (here) says:
Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June – August 2010.
El Niño dissipated during May 2010 as positive surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased rapidly across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and negative SST anomalies emerged across the eastern half of the Pacific.
The majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions (between -0.5C to +0.5C in the Niño-3.4 region) through early 2011. However, over the last several months, a growing number of models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate the onset of La Niña conditions during June-August 2010. There is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August 2010.
Pray to the La Nina gods! Pray! C'mon La Nina!  |
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| #2 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 04/06/2010 @ 21:05 |
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| Posts: 378 |
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Gloucestershire |
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| #3 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 04/06/2010 @ 21:50 |
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| In reply to post #2
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Hey Rogue, Baggzy ...
Looking to plan a group trip for next Jan ... looked at your Nina/Nino threads out of interest ... so should we be planning Europe or the States do you think?? |
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| #4 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 04/06/2010 @ 22:56 |
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| #5 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 05/06/2010 @ 01:00 |
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Revision #1 (Last edited: 05/06/2010 @ 01:01) |
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Statistically, you'd be better going for the west side of North America. Like Rogue said, Europe is generally poor about 12-18 months after an El Nino. If next season is a La Nina then most of western North America should be above average. But as Rogue said, that's only on average. The variability in snowfall is high, so we could still get a bad year even if it's a La Nina. (And we won't know it's definitely a La Nina unti September.) If you can leave it 'til the last minute, you can just wait & see. (I'd always do that with Europe anyway, because snowfall is so unpredictable.) But if you need to book it in advance the statistics are all you've got to go on, so I'd say western North America. Particularly good choices (on average) in a La Nina January would include Jackson Hole (if you like black runs), Fernie, Steamboat, Vail, Alta (skiers only), Solitude and Snowbird. Places to avoid would include Mammoth and maybe Lake Tahoe (but Tahoe's a complete lottery so I wouldn't put much stock in the average). |
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| #6 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 05/06/2010 @ 13:44 |
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| In reply to post #2
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Looks like I did, yeah. Sorry about that.  Stole your subject line too.  Hope you didn't copyright it.
QUOTE (Rogue_Skier - 04/06/2010 @ 21:05) Did you steal my thunder??  If La Nina is in full effect by September, then it should affect the weather systems up here by December....... Praying to Ullr for an epic winter!
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| #7 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 05/06/2010 @ 22:27 |
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| In reply to post #6
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I really hope Revelstoke get a good season next year.. Wanted to visit last season but the snow was rarely good. Might even buy a pass and go for a couple of weeks. Damn shouldnt get excited 5.5 months to winter... |
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| #8 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 06/06/2010 @ 03:44 |
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| In reply to post #7
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QUOTE (rideonwhistler - 05/06/2010 @ 22:27) ... Damn shouldnt get excited 5.5 months to winter...
Too true,the summer in B.C. is too good to miss. The bike park at Silver Star opens in a few weeks, there's great riding at Revy and all over the Koots, not to mention kayaking and hiking. Don't wish winter on us yet! |
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Gnarnia, Interior B.C. |
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| #9 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 07/06/2010 @ 17:25 |
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| In reply to post #8
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I am awaiting the sun, it's been raining a whole bunch just recently. But I know the 35+ oC will be upon us very soon!
Whitewater is beginging to look very 'spring like'... I plan on taking myself for a birthday shred tomorrow! June 8th riding... |
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Toqueanies Toqueanies - where handmade beanies and toques collide...
Toqueanies Toqueanies on 'The Book' |
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| #11 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 09/06/2010 @ 19:07 |
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| In reply to post #9
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Is White water still open? |
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| #12 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 09/06/2010 @ 20:32 |
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| In reply to post #11
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Nope, been closed for a while... *Snowangel lives up there! so spring-like means wild-flowers, baby bears, raccoons, dead-mice, etc..... And MTBing!  |
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"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
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| #13 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 23/06/2010 @ 23:42 |
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This weeks update:
"Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August 2010."
"By July-September 2009, the majority of models indicate the onset of La Nina conditions. Most of these models indicate La Nina conditions will strengthen and persist at least through Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11"
Oh yeah, Oh yeah, Oh yeah! |
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"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
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| Posts: 288 |
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South Glamorgan |
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| #14 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 24/06/2010 @ 10:07 |
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| In reply to post #13
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What implications does La Nina have for Europe? |
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Snow Disciples - Do not adjust your mind, there is a fault with reality |
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| #15 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 26/06/2010 @ 17:05 |
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| In reply to post #14
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See posts 4 & 5 in this thread for a bit of discussion on that. I don't have any detailed info, but have read in a few places that El Nino affects Europe 12-18 months later. So the El Nino winter last season would cause lower than average snowfall in Europe in the coming season. But I don't know how reliable that information is, or how strong the effect is. If anyone has monthly snowfall figures for the last 30 years for alot of European resorts I'd be happy to do the analysis.  But as far as I know nobody has that info.
Given that snowfall in Europe is so variable, it might not be worth worrying about. For Europe I always book last minute, because even in a good season there are long-ish periods without snow, or regions that miss out. And I love powder, not hard-packed pistes, so "snow sure" just isn't good enough. About 2-3 weeks before I want to go I'd look at which resorts had a good base, and start to monitor their snowfall. About a week before I want to go I'd pick a resort that had a good base, good recent snowfall, and was predicted to get alot more in the 10 days before & during my trip. Then see if I can get hotels and flights for a decent price. If not, try the next best, etc.
Obviously that's not going to work too well if you have a big group and need to book in advance. Or have kids and need to go in school holidays (when everywhere will be booked up). In that case you'd be better off (statistically speaking) looking at the west side of North America ("WNA") which has a more reliable snow record and can therefore be booked in advance. Especially if it's a La Nina season like 2010/11 might be. But WNA resorts have a different vibe, different scenery, and don't have the extent of the connected resorts in Europe, so aren't for everyone. The long-haul flight isn't for everyone either, especially if you have young kids or only have a week and effectively lose a day travelling. Flights are expensive right now, and may not come down. Lift tickets can be pricey in WNA too (though Europe is catching up). So WNA isn't likely to be cheap destination. But the snow is incredible - a bad year in WNA is like an average-to-good year in Europe.
But there's always a high degree of uncertainty, no matter where you go. The best we can do is improve our chances (statistically) then pray to the snow Gods to be nice to us. |
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| #16 Re: La Nina on it's way??? Posted 09/07/2010 @ 16:15 |
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Still looking good for a La Nina winter.  Latest update from the CPC and NOAA (here) shows current status as "La Nina watch"...
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July - August 2010.
During June 2010, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies expanding across the central and eastern Pacific.
The majority of models now predict La Niña conditions (SST anomalies less than or equal to -0.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region) to develop during June-August and to continue through early 2011.
Shame it's too expensive to fly over there.  |
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