|
|
 #1 El Nino on it's way??? Posted 10/07/2009 @ 16:31 |
   |
|
|
|
|
|
| #2 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 10/07/2009 @ 18:50 |
|
|
| In reply to post #1
... |
Argh, don't say that! We've just booked 10 days in Fernie over christmas... i knew we should have stayed in europe!  |
|
|
|
|
|
| #3 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 10/07/2009 @ 19:13 |
|
|
| In reply to post #2
... |
But as per my disclaimer.... they're hopeless as predicting the weather around here!! 
And besides, the average effect of the El Nino in Canada apparently is a 1 or 2 degree average increase in temperature..... which is quite welcome when your average is -20C!! |
|
 |
|
|
"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
|
|
|
|
|
| #4 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 10/07/2009 @ 19:28 |
|
|
| In reply to post #3
... |
ah... so no need to go overboard packing banana hammocks and flip-flops then 
well, at least only a couple for the hot tub anyway  |
|
|
|
|
|
| #5 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 15/07/2009 @ 22:06 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| #6 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 08/09/2009 @ 15:14 |
|
|
| In reply to post #1
... |
|
The next thing to as is - will the snow pack in Canada be so avalanche prone as it was last year? Low snow is okay when you can get out and explore off piste, but last year was crazy for deaths. |
|
|
|
|
|
Living the dream in Fernie, B.C. |
|
|
|
|
|
| #7 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 09/09/2009 @ 00:22 |
|
|
|
Revision #3 (Last edited: 10/09/2009 @ 00:09) |
Check out Tony Croker's analysis of the effect of El Nino and La Nina (that's the opposite of El Nino) here. He found that fewer US resorts are affected by El Nino than you might think.
According the NOAA discussion (section entitled "Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic El Nino events", updated 03 September, here) the latest El Nino measurement (August) is 0.98, classified as "moderate El Nino conditions" (they can go up to 2 or 3, meaning 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal). There's about a 71% auto-correlation on average (according to Tony's analysis) 4 months into the future, so there's a high probability that it'll last at least until year end, and 43% for 7 months out, so there's a reasonable probability it'll last all season.
It's unusual for an La Nina (which we just had) to switch to El Nino in the same year, and this year seems to be following the track of the previous 7 occasions pretty well, so those years (51-52, 57-58, 63-64, 76-77, and 2006-7) might offer a guide to what will happen, but who can remember that far back? (Actually this year is about a month earlier than all but one of the other occasions, which might suggest it'll have more of an effect, but who knows?)
According to Tony (here) the areas "strongly favoured" by El Nino (those with a 40%-50% correlation between snowfall and the El Nino index) are:
Southern California
Arizona
Far Southern Utah (i.e. Brian Head only)
Chile
Argentina
So not places most people from the UK are likely to go.
Mildly favoured (a 10%-20% correlation) are:
June Mountain (near Mammoth)
Taos (New Mexico)
Mammoth Mountain
Thompson Pass (Alaska)
In strong El Nino years (an index of 1.5 or more, of which there have only been 7 since 1949, with 1997-8 being the most recent) the effect on snowfall can be dramatic in the affected areas listed above, with increases of 50%-100% in snowfall, but the variability of snowfall also goes way up, so you can still have snowfall 20%-40% below average. In a mild El Nino year (an index around 1) the average is probably about 15% more snow, but could easily be anywhere from 60% more to 50% less. An index anywhere from 1 to 0 shows a symmetric distribution, i.e. neither better nor worse, but the spread is still high. Of more concern, in these areas, is that in an La Nina years (an index of -1 to -2) the varability goes down, so the average is more certain, and is almost always 10%-30% below normal. But this won't be an La Nina year, so we can forget about that for this season, and probably the next 2 or 3.
So we can conclude that in these few areas, the current mild El Nino condition will definitely lead to potentially huge variation from the norm, with a slightly higher probability of an above average year than a below average year. If the strength of the El Nino increases, the chance of it being an above average season will go up, but so will the deviation from the norm, so you could still get a real stinker.
And to further muddy the waters, the most recent year in which La Nina became El Nino in the same calendar year was for the 2006-7 season, so that season might serve as a guide to the coming season... but in that season all the areas normally favoured by El Nino had significantly less snow than usual.
Those strongly disfavoured by El Nino (55%-35% correlation, highest correlation first) are:
Whitefish (formerly Big Mountain)
Sunshine Village
Mt. Baker
Schweitzer
Fernie Snow Valley
Silver Star
Mt. Fidelity
Mt. Hood Meadows
Jackson Hole
Mt. Rainier Paradise
Lake Louise
Bridger Bowl
Snoqualmie Pass
Teton Pass
Those mildly disfavoured by El Nino (35%-25% correlation, highest correlation first) are:
Big White
Mt. Norquay
Jay Peak
Stevens Pass
Loon
Steamboat
Crater Lake (Mt. Bailey)
Mt. St. Anne
Whitewater
Stowe
Mt. Bachelor
Smuggler's Notch
Cannon Mt.
The situation for disfavoured resorts is a little clearer than for favoured resorts because the variability of the average snowfall figures stays reasonably constant. So we can say with some confidence (less so for the mildly disfavoured) that in mild to strong El Nino years these resorts will receive about 15% less snow on average, with a typical range of 0%-30% less.
All other areas, including Whistler, are insensitive to El Nino (look here) with a statistically insignificant 15% correlation or less, and no change in variability. i.e. The amount of snow varies randomly around the average with no tendency to be significantly higher or lower than normal during El Nino years (or to vary more than normal).
Of course none of these stats will stop people from drawing anecdotal conclusions. e.g. The Kirkwood website currently says "Experts are saying we're in store for another El Nino winter... If memory serves us correctly, the last time we heard those words, we were skiing and riding blower powder... BEFORE HALLOWEEN."
The stats don't support that conclusion, but who knows? The stats can only tell us so much. Maybe the locals know better. The stats only tell us the effect of El Nino on the season as a whole, for example. Maybe the start of the season is well above average, and the end well below average. Or vice versa. Maybe the storms are less frequent but more powerful, so locals see it as a bumper season for big dumps? The stats (and weather prediction models) are currently insufficient to tell us.
As I understand it. |
|
|
|
|
|
| #8 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 09/09/2009 @ 01:48 |
|
|
|
Recent El Nino seasons were 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2004-5, and 2006-7. Anyone remember what they were like? |
|
|
|
|
|
| #9 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 09/09/2009 @ 01:56 |
|
|
| In reply to post #8
... |
The latest Farmer's Almanac (moon, stars and tea leaf basis) predicts a colder snowier Winter!!  |
|
|
|
|
|
"If you know all 4 seasons: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Road Construction..... you may be living in Canada!" |
|
|
|
|
|
| #10 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 09/09/2009 @ 08:31 |
|
|
| In reply to post #8
... |
QUOTE (baggzy - 09/09/2009 @ 01:48) Recent El Nino seasons were 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2004-5, and 2006-7. Anyone remember what they were like?
I went to Sauze in March of 2007. That season was complete sh*te in Europe for snow. I think I remember hearing that the Americas had a pretty decent season though. |
|
|
|
|
I've been all over the world, Ibiza, Magaluf, Blackpool etc and Tamworth was by far the best for snowsports!! It's intense man!!! You're totally gripped when you're at the top and looking down...
Snowboard Wales Facebook Group |
|
|
|
|
|
| #11 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 09/09/2009 @ 08:50 |
|
|
| In reply to post #8
... |
QUOTE (baggzy - 09/09/2009 @ 01:48) Recent El Nino seasons were 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2004-5, and 2006-7. Anyone remember what they were like?
Some observations from my own trips....
2002-2003 I was in Montana for 2 weeks in March/April. I don't study snow like Tony other than whats on the ground on a given day. Everywhere had lots of snow and i had at least one 12-24" dump.
2004-2005 I was in Montana, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming for four weeks. March 17th, 40" in 2 days at Showdown Montana. March 20th 12" at Moonlight. March 21st Beaver Mountain 12", March 23rd 12" at Deer Valley, March 24th very heavy snow at Steamboat, March 26th 10" reported at base of Sunlight, March 29th 12-18" fresh at Solitude. March 30th 6 feet of snow in 2-3 days in BCC/LCC Utah. April 4th Bogous Basin had closed in mid March due to poor snow season but reopened after epic amounts fell and I skied in 12" of fresh.
2006-2007 I was in Montana, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona for four weeks March/April. I recall a general lack of snow base in Montana and Idaho and little fresh with very warm weather and resorts in Montana closing early for the season. However New Mexico and Arizona had banner years I recall reading at the time and although not a lot of fresh they had large bases compared to normal for March/April. March 24th I got 4" reported at Sunrise, Arizona but it was definately nearer 12" in places. March 31st 12" fresh at Durango. Way less base in Sunlight compared to previous visits. April 8th saw 9"+ at Loveland and excellent conditions.
The one funny year I recall in Utah was March/April of 2004 which brought no fresh from memory in about 3 weeks of March in Utah. It was the hottest March day ever recorded in SLC at 80 degrees and also the hottest March on record so I guess it proves nothing?
I still think the discussions that are valid are early season conditions and I'd avoid that in El Nino or La Nina anywhere! |
|
|
|
|
|
| #12 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 10/09/2009 @ 23:10 |
|
|
Some further info for any data freaks out there like me. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has produced the following maps (see here):
Total season snowfall in neutral years.
(These serve as a guide to which areas are better than others. Mountain resorts will get alot more than the area average figures shown here, obviously.)
Difference between El Nino years and the average shown above:
(Blue is better than average, red is worse.)
This map basically confirms most of Tony Crocker's findings. The Jackson Hole and Steamboat areas get alot less snow while Mammoth gets alot more and Salt Lake is unaffected. But they disagree with regard to Lake Tahoe, which these maps suggest receives alot more snow.
Here's the La Nina map, though it probably won't be relevant for a few years:
 |
|
|
|
|
|
| #13 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 25/09/2009 @ 06:00 |
|
|
| In reply to post #8
... |
QUOTE (baggzy - 09/09/2009 @ 01:48) Recent El Nino seasons were 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2004-5, and 2006-7. Anyone remember what they were like?
don't know about 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8 as i started boarding at the end of 98, but 2002-3 but a horrible horrible year for snow in the Vancouver area. I had a pass to one of the local hills but i only used it a few times as most of the time they only had muddy snow! I think that that was the year that whistler practically shut in February because all the snow got washed away from rain! That also happened another year but can't remember exactly which it was. Maybe Dennis remembers as that was the year he came out to whistler and from mid station down was completely shut (ie dirt, no snow at all) in february/march. Maybe it was 2004-2005?!?! |
|
|
|
|
|
| #14 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 01/10/2009 @ 12:59 |
|
|
| In reply to post #13
... |
|
Doesn't sound good, all i know is that last year was the reverse of the El Nino called La Nina and we all know how good a season it was so heres hoping it's not back to 2 years ago which was one of the worst seasons for years. |
|
|
|
| Posts: 352 |
|
North Yorkshire |
|
|
| #15 Re: El Nino on it's way??? Posted 01/10/2009 @ 14:22 |
|
|
|
My attitude to snow predictions is wait and see. It's daft getting your knickers in a twist about it because a) it's notoriously unpredictable and b) we're all going to go snowboarding anyway. |
|
|
|